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Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Child/Nutrition | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnosing HIV Infection During Early Infancy in South Africa
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis …
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) testing strategies for HIV-exposed infants in South Africa were compared using a microsimulation model. The strategies included (1) no EID (diagnosis only after illness), (2) and (3) testing once (at birth alone or at 6 weeks of age alone), and (4) testing twice (at birth and 6 weeks of age). Findings showed that the testing at birth alone strategy…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Child/Nutrition | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2015Cost-Effectiveness of First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-Infected African Children Less Than 3 Years of Age
This article compares the cost-effectiveness of different strategies of first-line antiretroviral therapy (no ART, first-line nevirapine …
This article compares the cost-effectiveness of different strategies of first-line antiretroviral therapy (no ART, first-line nevirapine with second-line lopinavir/ritonavir, and first-line lopinavir/ritonavir with second-line nevirapine) for HIV-infected children less than 3 years of age in Africa, using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications- Pediatric model and data obtained from the International Maternal, Pediatric, and Adolescent Clinical Trial P1060 trial. Results demonstrated that both ART regimens were very cost-effective compared to no ART. First-line lopinavir/ritonavir led to longer…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Child/Nutrition | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Child/Nutrition | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2010Health and Economic Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in GAVI-Eligible Countries
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately …
Rotavirus infection is responsible for about 500,000 deaths annually, and the disease burden is disproportionately borne by children in low-income countries. Motivated by the global recommendation by the WHO that all countries include infant rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization programs, the objective of this analysis was to provide information on the expected health, economic and financial consequences of rotavirus vaccines in the 72 GAVI support-eligible countries. The authors synthesized population-level data from various sources (primarily from…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Child/Nutrition | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Economics/Finance | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16/18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Eastern Africa
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe …
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, they assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, they assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology