Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Spatial-Mechanistic Model to Estimate Sub-National Tuberculosis Burden in Brazilian Municipalities
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas …
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas of highest need. This study developed an approach for generating small area estimates of TB incidence, and the fraction of individuals missed by routine case detection, based on available notification and mortality data. The approach is demonstrated by estimating TB outcomes for 5568 municipalities in Brazil, revealing substantial subnational differences in disease burden and other metrics useful for designing high-impact…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | North America | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness & Value-of-Information Analysis Using Machine Learning-Based Metamodeling: A Case of Hepatitis C Treatment
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes …
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes of a complex simulation model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) natural history. Three ML-based metamodels (random forest, support vector regression, and artificial neural networks) and a linear regression-based metamodel were developed from the simulation model's 40 input parameters. Performance evaluation included root mean squared error (RMSE) and Pearson's R2 on normalized data. ML-based metamodels generally outperformed linear regression, with random…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Child Health Inequity through Case Management of Under-Five Malaria in Nigeria: An ECEA
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of …
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of under-five malaria case management in Nigeria, utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and a decision tree model. Findings reveal that fully subsidizing medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8,600 cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and US$187 million in out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Per US$1 million invested, this translates to a significant reduction in under-five…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ToolInteractive, Teaching Resource 2020RAND Critical Care Surge Response Tool
This Excel-based model allows decisionmakers at all levels (i.e., hospitals, health care systems, states, regions) …
This Excel-based model allows decisionmakers at all levels (i.e., hospitals, health care systems, states, regions) to examine the current critical care capacity in the nation’s hospitals and rapidly explore strategies for increasing capacity to provide care for the sickest COVID-19 patients. The tool was developed by the RAND Corporation in response to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Model input parameters to the Excel spreadsheet include baseline number of beds, critical care doctors and nurses, respiratory therapists,…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Operations Research | Health/Medicine | North America | Professional | Policy Translation -
ArticlePublication 2017Catastrophic Costs Potentially Averted by TB Control in India and South Africa
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis …
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa from 2016 to 2035, in line with the End TB Strategy. The authors investigated three intervention scenarios: improved treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis; improved treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and expansion of access to tuberculosis care through intensified case finding (South Africa only). In India and South Africa, improvements in treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific