Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
DataPublication 2023Trends in Maternal Mortality 2000 to 2020
This report presents global, regional, and country-level estimates and trends for maternal mortality between 2000 …
This report presents global, regional, and country-level estimates and trends for maternal mortality between 2000 and 2020 produced by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG).* The estimates are intended to inform progress in maternal mortality to support national efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.1, to reduce maternal mortality to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030. The report is accompanied by a set of country…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Effectiveness of Healthcare Personnel Reactive Testing and Screening for the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron Variant within Nursing Homes
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak …
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak viral concentration to clearance of acute infection), may be less detectable by antigen tests (decreased sensitivity), and may be more likely to evade immunity conferred by past infection or vaccination) compared to prior variants. This calls for a reassessment of strategies to prevent its spread, especially in vulnerable settings like nursing homes. Using a model that tracks viral shedding patterns,…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Effects of Public Financing of Essential Maternal and Child Health Interventions Across Wealth Quintiles in Nigeria: An Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study evaluates the potential health and financial risk protection benefits of public financing for …
This study evaluates the potential health and financial risk protection benefits of public financing for maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions in Nigeria, focusing on different wealth quintiles. Employing extended cost-effectiveness analysis, the research assesses the impact of a policy ensuring zero out-of-pocket costs for 18 essential MNCH services. Three scenarios were modeled: status quo, uniform scale-up, and pro-poor scale-up. Findings suggest that a 5% increase in coverage for all quintiles could prevent significant…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Spatial-Mechanistic Model to Estimate Sub-National Tuberculosis Burden in Brazilian Municipalities
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas …
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas of highest need. This study developed an approach for generating small area estimates of TB incidence, and the fraction of individuals missed by routine case detection, based on available notification and mortality data. The approach is demonstrated by estimating TB outcomes for 5568 municipalities in Brazil, revealing substantial subnational differences in disease burden and other metrics useful for designing high-impact…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Re-Evaluating the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Prevention for Modern ART Cohorts
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in …
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as individuals initiate ART earlier in the course of disease, TB incidence is lower, and it is unclear how ART cost-effectiveness has changed. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TPT in contemporary ART cohorts. The authors developed a microsimulation model of TB and HIV and parameterised it using data from a large HIV…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness & Value-of-Information Analysis Using Machine Learning-Based Metamodeling: A Case of Hepatitis C Treatment
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes …
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes of a complex simulation model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) natural history. Three ML-based metamodels (random forest, support vector regression, and artificial neural networks) and a linear regression-based metamodel were developed from the simulation model's 40 input parameters. Performance evaluation included root mean squared error (RMSE) and Pearson's R2 on normalized data. ML-based metamodels generally outperformed linear regression, with random…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk