Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReviewPublication 2016Choosing an Epidemiological Model Structure for Economic Evaluation
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic …
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to a greater need for prevention of chronic diseases. In order for decision makers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Combining Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population …
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population dynamics. Microsimulation describes the population dynamics at the individual level, and actions conducted by the individuals are generated by stochastic processes. An emerging method is the agent-based model, which focuses on the interactions among individuals and expects to see unexpected situations created from the interactions. In the proposed hybrid model, the microsimulation model takes a role to depict how an…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Asia & Pacific -
ReviewPublication 2016Decision Support for Infectious Disease Control
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to …
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious disease prevention, detection, and response and aligns these tools with real-world policy questions that the tools can help address. This overview is designed to help modelers and other technical experts understand the questions that policymakers will raise and the decisions they must make. The report also presents policymakers with the capabilities and limitations of the different tools that may…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Global -
ReviewPublication 2015Decision-Analytic Modeling Studies of Multiple Myeloma
This review provides an overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma …
This review provides an overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma and is based on a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. Studies were included that assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2015Agent-Based Models and Microsimulation
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models …
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models used to simulate the actions and interactions of “agents” within a system. Usually, each agent has a set of rules for how he or she responds to the environment and to other agents. These models are used to gain insight into the emergent behavior of complex systems with many agents, in which the emergent behavior depends upon the micro-level behavior…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
ReviewPublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: Review of Modelling Approaches
This review examines the modelling approaches used in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of vaccination programs. After …
This review examines the modelling approaches used in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of vaccination programs. After overviewing the key attributes of models used in CEAs, a framework for categorizing theoretical models is presented. Categories are based on three main attributes: static/dynamic; stochastic/deterministic; and aggregate/individual based.
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global