Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Global | Decision Analysis | Risk Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024MIDAS
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models …
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. Midas focuses on research topics such as: Dynamics of emergence and spread of pathogens; Identification and surveillance of infectious diseases; Effectiveness and consequences of intervention strategies; Host/pathogen interactions; Ecological, climatic, economic and evolutionary dimensions of infectious diseases; The roles of behavior and behavioral adaptation in…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Risk Analysis | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Educational Module: Forensic Pattern Recognition
This module uses latent print (fingerprint) identification as a case study of the broader category …
This module uses latent print (fingerprint) identification as a case study of the broader category of forensic pattern recognition evidence. The case of forensic pattern recognition evidence is meant, in turn, to be a case study of the broader issue of the interaction between science and law and policy. The case of fingerprinting identification poses challenging questions for legal professionals and policy-makers. Although fingerprint identification is one of the most widely used and widely trusted…
Global | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Science/Technology | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Global | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2014Maths and Our Health
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics …
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. Each pack provides videos and supplemental materials, including presentations, worksheets, and games. Topics include: “Eating Bacon Sandwiches is Bad for You!” Evaluating Risk Epidemics: Modelling with Mathematics Life Saving Maths: How Does Vaccination Work? The Economics of Health: How Do We Decide? The Test is Positive: But What Are the Odds It’s Wrong?
Global | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Middle School | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Global | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine