Resources Repository
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Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP)
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the …
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the University of Cambridge, is a maths education and outreach initiative for ages 3 to 19 and the general public. The focus is on increasing mathematical understanding, confidence and enjoyment, developing problem-solving skills, and promoting creative and imaginative approaches to maths. The project consists of a family of complementary programmes, including the NRICH website, Plus online mathematics magazine, Wild Maths, and…
Risk Analysis | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Environmental Health | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe | High School | College | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | North America -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Introduction to Programming Decision Trees
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate …
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate three initial management strategies for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on a published analysis: Soeteman DI, Stout NK, Ozanne EM et al. Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013; 105 (11): 774-781. The tutorial describes how to build the model structure, parameterize the model probabilities and outcomes based on…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making under Uncertainty
This self-directed tutorial is for a decision analytic model related to the execution and management …
This self-directed tutorial is for a decision analytic model related to the execution and management of prescribed burns within forests. This tutorial builds upon the work of the publication: Cohan D, Haas SM, Radloff DL, Yancik RF. Using Fire in Forest Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Interfaces 1984; 14 (5): 8-19. Not open access. About the Alan Colowick Innovation Fund The case-based tutorials in this teaching pack were created with support from the CHDS Alan Colowick…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Infectious Disease Pandemic Planning and Response: Incorporating Decision Analysis
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in …
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in analytical methods for gaining early situational awareness (i.e., of a disease’s transmissibility and severity) and for predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions, a major gap exists globally in terms of integrating this information in policy documents. The authors argue that mathematical and statistical models are important tools for pandemic planning and response. Once an outbreak of pandemic potential has been…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Health Systems | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Risk, Economics, and Decisions
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, includes articles from the …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, includes articles from the Risk Analysis special issue “Risk Assessment, Economic Evaluation, and Decisions” honoring Professor John Evans. The special issue was guest edited by CHDS’ Deputy Director Lisa A. Robinson and builds upon a 2019 workshop organized by Ms. Robinson and CHDS faculty James K. Hammitt. Articles include: James K. Hammitt, Lisa A. Robinson. Introduction to Special Issue on Risk Assessment,…
Risk Analysis | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation -
Lesson/ModuleVideo, Teaching Resource 2018Sensitivity Analyses
This video is intended to provide an introduction to the use of sensitivity analyses to …
This video is intended to provide an introduction to the use of sensitivity analyses to test how uncertainty impacts model predicted results. Uncertainty from point estimates used for model inputs is discussed as is testing using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. This video is part of the Conducting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with VA Data (HCEA) free course offered by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development group focused on cost-effectiveness analysis and…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleVideo, Teaching Resource 2018Medical Decision Making and Decision Analysis
This video is intended to provide an introduction to decision analysis in the context of …
This video is intended to provide an introduction to decision analysis in the context of medicine and public health and includes a discussion of the goals and elements of a decision analysis, introduces the concept of decision trees, and highlights how Markov models can be used to consider more complex disease decisions. This video is part of the Conducting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with VA Data (HCEA) free course offered by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy