Resources Repository
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Tools/ModelsPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Publicly Available Software Tools for Decision-Makers During an Emergent Epidemic
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health …
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health practitioners, decision makers and researchers to plan, prepare, identify and respond to outbreaks in near real-timeframes. The aim of this research is to evaluate the range of public domain and freely available software epidemic modelling tools. Twenty freely utilizable software tools underwent assessment of software usability, utility and key functionalities. Stochastic and agent based tools were found to be highly…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Global -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the U.S.
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical …
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls in the US (at 12 years of age), and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). The study also examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Economic Evaluation of Hepatitis B Vaccination in Low-Income Countries: Cost-Effectiveness Affordability Curves
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine …
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine program, as well as the availability and magnitude of resources needed to fund the program, cost-effectiveness affordability curves can provide information to decision-makers about the probability that a program will be both cost-effective and affordable: these are distinct but equally relevant considerations in resource-poor settings. This paper describes the application of this method to assess a hepatitis B vaccination program in the…
Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReviewPublication 2016Choosing an Epidemiological Model Structure for Economic Evaluation
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic …
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to a greater need for prevention of chronic diseases. In order for decision makers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of…
Health Systems | Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine