Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Cervical Cancer Models
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of models of HPV-related cervical cancer, differing in design, structure and features based on analytic objectives. In many ways, HPV and its related diseases represent a prototypical public health problem given the communicable and non-communicable nature of disease, opportunities for intervention along the entire disease spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis, treatment), the varied ages at which interventions are targeted…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Model Calibration and Validation
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to empirical calibration and validation methods for mathematical models used in health decision analysis. Included are a selection of overviews, guidelines, tutorials, and applications. Given the complexity of diseases and variation in data quality, there are invariably a number of parameters that are unobserved or cannot be estimated directly but can be inferred through the process of model calibration. Model calibration…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024MIDAS
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models …
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. Midas focuses on research topics such as: Dynamics of emergence and spread of pathogens; Identification and surveillance of infectious diseases; Effectiveness and consequences of intervention strategies; Host/pathogen interactions; Ecological, climatic, economic and evolutionary dimensions of infectious diseases; The roles of behavior and behavioral adaptation in…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Risk Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Value of Information | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Models for Health Decision Science
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides broad exposure to mathematical models used in health decision science (e.g., microsimulation, dynamic transmission, agent-based, etc.). Resources include overviews, guidelines, tutorials, and applications relevant to a broad range of clinical and public health topics. A decision analytic approach relies on the use of a mathematical model to formally structure the components of the decision over time. Models are particularly useful when multiple data sources…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology