Resources Repository
-
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Lesson/ModuleVideo, Teaching Resource 2018Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are …
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are needed for decision models. Presented are the concepts of literature based Odds Ratios and Relative Risks, which need to be transformed into probabilities, how to deal with probability estimates from time frames not relevant to the model in question, and how to derive probabilities from published summary statistics. This lecture is aimed at the researcher who is interested in operationalizing…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Guide to Regulatory Impact Analysis
Regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) weigh the benefits of regulations against the burdens they impose and …
Regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) weigh the benefits of regulations against the burdens they impose and are invaluable tools for informing decision makers. The Consumer’s Guide to Regulatory Impact Analysis: Ten Tips for Being an Informed Policymaker offers 10 tips for non-specialist policymakers and interested stakeholders who will be reading RIAs as consumers.
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Risk Analysis | Government/Law | Global -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Risk Analysis | Injuries/Accidents | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Educational Module: Shale Gas Development
This module has been developed around the topic of the extraction of natural gas from …
This module has been developed around the topic of the extraction of natural gas from shale. This practice, commonly referred to as fracking, involves several practices that have complex and uncertain consequences. In the module, three scientific concepts are explored in order to elucidate how science is applied toward addressing real-world problems. The scientific concepts are: (1) correlation is not the same as causation, (2) hazard is not the same as risk, and (3) risk…
Probability/Bayes | Risk Analysis | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Educational Module: Forensic Pattern Recognition
This module uses latent print (fingerprint) identification as a case study of the broader category …
This module uses latent print (fingerprint) identification as a case study of the broader category of forensic pattern recognition evidence. The case of forensic pattern recognition evidence is meant, in turn, to be a case study of the broader issue of the interaction between science and law and policy. The case of fingerprinting identification poses challenging questions for legal professionals and policy-makers. Although fingerprint identification is one of the most widely used and widely trusted…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015White Paper: Retrospective Benefit-Cost Analysis
In this article the authors consider how benefit-cost analysis can be used retrospectively to promote …
In this article the authors consider how benefit-cost analysis can be used retrospectively to promote understanding of the impacts after a policy is implemented. Serving as a brief primer, the authors propose that analysis can be useful for identifying needed reforms as well as in improving the conduct of future prospective analyses. The major challenges relate to estimating what would have occurred in the absence of the policy and separating the effects of the policy…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Policy Translation -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2011Test is Positive: But What Are the Odds It's Wrong?
This learning module explores real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. It includes a …
This learning module explores real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. It includes a wide range of activities and resources to accompany videos on probability and statistics in diagnostic testing and as evidence in the court of law. These videos aim to help students better understand what questions to ask in order to produce optimal data. Both video-related and alternative practice problems are provided. These activities are recommended to be used together but can…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Government/Law | Global | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 1980Threshold Approach to Clinical Decision Making
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and …
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and how to calculate thresholds for testing, treatment, and no treatment. The authors describe how a physician's estimate of the probability that a patient has a particular disease is a principal factor in the determination of whether to withhold treatment, obtain more data by testing, or treat without subjecting the patient to the risks of further diagnostic tests. Using the concepts of decision analysis,…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis