Resources Repository
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Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP)
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the …
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the University of Cambridge, is a maths education and outreach initiative for ages 3 to 19 and the general public. The focus is on increasing mathematical understanding, confidence and enjoyment, developing problem-solving skills, and promoting creative and imaginative approaches to maths. The project consists of a family of complementary programmes, including the NRICH website, Plus online mathematics magazine, Wild Maths, and…
Probability/Bayes | Risk Analysis | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Environmental Health | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe | High School | College | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Probability/Bayes | Risk Analysis | Test Performance | Injuries/Accidents | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Educational Module: Shale Gas Development
This module has been developed around the topic of the extraction of natural gas from …
This module has been developed around the topic of the extraction of natural gas from shale. This practice, commonly referred to as fracking, involves several practices that have complex and uncertain consequences. In the module, three scientific concepts are explored in order to elucidate how science is applied toward addressing real-world problems. The scientific concepts are: (1) correlation is not the same as causation, (2) hazard is not the same as risk, and (3) risk…
Probability/Bayes | Risk Analysis | Business/Industry | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Teaching PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Teaching Pack: Heuristics with Joe Pliskin
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics …
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics used in decision making. While these “mental shortcuts” can be useful in some circumstances, they can lead to more errors than deliberate, rational thinking. An awareness of these heuristics is useful to decision makers. This series of videos on heuristics was developed by Professor Joe Pliskin during his residency with the CHDS Media Hub led by Jake Waxman. They reflect…
Probability/Bayes | Business/Industry | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2023Valuing Mortality Risk: Per Life, Life Year, or QALY?
It is important to consider age and other relevant factors when assessing the value associated …
It is important to consider age and other relevant factors when assessing the value associated with reducing risks to ensure a comprehensive and accurate understanding of its impact. In a recent paper, it is explained that the value of risk reduction, whether it is a temporary or persistent reduction, can be defined using the "value per statistical life" (VSL), "value per statistical life year" (VSLY), or "value per quality-adjusted life year" (VQALY).
Risk Analysis | Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Risk Analysis | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global