Resources Repository
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Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Maternal Health Models and CEA
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of modeling approaches used to conduct analyses relevant to maternal and reproductive health. Some papers focus on a particular problem (e.g., screening for prenatal syphilis, comparison of alternative strategies for safe abortion), while others explore strategies for reducing morbidity and mortality from the entire spectrum of pregnancy and childbirth-related complications. Several of the examples model the primary drivers of maternal mortality (e.g.,…
Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Relative Risk of Incidence and Mortality of Select Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every …
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. This paper models the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. The authors approach…
Evidence Synthesis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Gains and Financial Protection from HPV Vaccination
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical …
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. This article uses a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. The findings show that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases…
Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2022Re-Evaluating the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Prevention for Modern ART Cohorts
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in …
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as individuals initiate ART earlier in the course of disease, TB incidence is lower, and it is unclear how ART cost-effectiveness has changed. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TPT in contemporary ART cohorts. The authors developed a microsimulation model of TB and HIV and parameterised it using data from a large HIV…
Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ReviewPublication 2018Setting Health Sector Priorities: A Brief Overview of Ethiopia's Experience
Based on Ethiopia’s commitment to attain universal health coverage by 2035, the authors use the …
Based on Ethiopia’s commitment to attain universal health coverage by 2035, the authors use the current national strategies including the national essential health service package in Ethiopia as a springboard to explore the criteria and processes Ethiopia uses to set the existing national health sector priorities. Addition the authors highlight the critical need to strengthen country-led efforts and investments in human capital in developing country contexts.
Evidence Synthesis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnosing HIV Infection During Early Infancy in South Africa
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis …
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) testing strategies for HIV-exposed infants in South Africa were compared using a microsimulation model. The strategies included (1) no EID (diagnosis only after illness), (2) and (3) testing once (at birth alone or at 6 weeks of age alone), and (4) testing twice (at birth and 6 weeks of age). Findings showed that the testing at birth alone strategy…
Microsimulation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine