Resources Repository
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Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Probability/Bayes | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Probability/Bayes | Risk Analysis | Injuries/Accidents | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016Placing a Bet: New Therapy for Parkinson's Disease
This module is intended for use by business school students. It examines the decision-making process …
This module is intended for use by business school students. It examines the decision-making process at a pharmaceutical company as its chief operating officer decides whether to invest in the development and licensing of a promising treatment for Parkinson’s disease. The module is structured around a drug development case that provides students with opportunities to: (1) analyze a rich and realistic description of the complex scientific and medical results associated with a promising therapeutic molecule…
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Technology Assessment | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2014Maths and Our Health
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics …
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. Each pack provides videos and supplemental materials, including presentations, worksheets, and games. Topics include: “Eating Bacon Sandwiches is Bad for You!” Evaluating Risk Epidemics: Modelling with Mathematics Life Saving Maths: How Does Vaccination Work? The Economics of Health: How Do We Decide? The Test is Positive: But What Are the Odds It’s Wrong?
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Decision Theory | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle School | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 2013Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, 3rd Edition
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas …
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version has been purposefully written to be more relevant to students in business and engineering compared to previous versions. This new version also incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® software by Palisade Corporation. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions…
Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Value of Information | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | North America | Europe