Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Benefit and Harm of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment: Derivation and Validation of Risk Models Using Data from the Sprint and Accord Trials
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some …
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. The authors sought to create risk calculators to estimate individual patients’ chances of benefit and harm from intensive treatment. They developed statistical models of cardiovascular events and serious adverse events from individual participant data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) of intensive blood pressure treatment (N = 9,069 with complete covariate data) and validated them…
Probability/Bayes | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk -
Tutorial/PrimerWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2015Decision Theory
This chapter on normative decision theory is from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, a dynamic reference …
This chapter on normative decision theory is from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, a dynamic reference work available online. Decision theory is concerned with the reasoning underlying an person's choices, whether a mundane choice between taking the bus or getting a taxi, or a more far-reaching choice about whether to pursue a demanding political career. The orthodox normative decision theory, expected utility (EU) theory, essentially says that, in situations of uncertainty, one should prefer the option…
Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2014Decision Theory: A Formal Philosophical Introduction
Decision theory is the study of how choices are and should be made in a …
Decision theory is the study of how choices are and should be made in a variety of different contexts. The author approaches the topic from a formal-philosophical point of view with a focus on normative and conceptual issues. After considering the question of how decision problems should be framed, he examines both the standard theories of chance under conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty and some of the current debates about how uncertainty should be measured and how…
Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Bayesian Methods for Calibrating Health Policy Models: A Tutorial
This article provides a tutorial on Bayesian approaches for model calibration. It describes the theoretical …
This article provides a tutorial on Bayesian approaches for model calibration. It describes the theoretical basis for Bayesian calibration approaches as well as pragmatic considerations that arise in the tasks of creating calibration targets, estimating the posterior distribution, and obtaining results to inform the policy decision. These considerations, as well as the specific steps for implementing the calibration, are described in the context of an extended worked example about the policy choice to provide (or…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReviewPublication 2017Validation and Calibration of Structural Models that Combine Information from Multiple Sources
This is a review of calibration and validation methods in mathematical modeling. Such models that …
This is a review of calibration and validation methods in mathematical modeling. Such models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. The authors provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
Teaching PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Teaching Pack: Teaching Prototypes for Decision Analysis
These videos, developed by Professor Myriam Hunink during an immersion residency at the Center for …
These videos, developed by Professor Myriam Hunink during an immersion residency at the Center for Health Decision Science (CHDS) Media Hub, reflect experiments to augment brick and mortar teaching with multimedia materials that emphasize visualization of basic concepts. The first video introduces decision making under uncertainty, and illustrates the use of probability and odds to quantitatively express uncertainty. The second and third videos introduce probability revision visually and analytically, showing how an initial probability is…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
BookWeb Portal 2018Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy (IEP)
The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy (IEP) was founded in 1995 to provide open access to …
The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy (IEP) was founded in 1995 to provide open access to detailed, scholarly information on key topics and philosophers in all areas of philosophy. The Encyclopedia's articles are written with the intention that most of the article can be understood by advanced undergraduates majoring in philosophy and by other scholars who are not working in the field covered by that article. The IEP articles are written by experts but not for…
Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Global Governance | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Government/Law