Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care -
Tools/ModelsInteractive, Teaching Resource 2020Interactive Graphic: Interpreting a COVID-19 Test Result
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction …
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and most often uses samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. This interactive graphic demonstrates the influence of the prior probability of COVID-19, the test sensitivity (i.e., the probability of a positive test conditional on disease presence), and the test specificity (i.e., the probability of a negative test conditional on disease absence) on the post-test probability of…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Resource Pack: Decision Analysis & Childhood Obesity
This resource pack on childhood obesity was curated by the Center for Health Decision Science …
This resource pack on childhood obesity was curated by the Center for Health Decision Science to showcase existing cost-effectiveness analyses and motivate students, educators, and others to pursue new applications of decision science methods to the public health challenge of obesity. The resource pack was motivated by the NEJM article entitled Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood published on November 30, 2017, with CHDS co-authors Zach Ward and Stephen Resch. Citation: Ward Z, Long M,…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Clinical Decision Making: Using a Diagnostic Test
This article is part of a 6-part series on clinical decision making. The authors use …
This article is part of a 6-part series on clinical decision making. The authors use two clinical examples to review the principles of interpreting diagnostic test results. They outline an approach that can be used to determine how to select and apply tests and their results to the practice of internal medicine. Topics covered in the two case studies include sensitivity and specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive value of tests, and how to estimate…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2013Agent-Based Simulation Modelling Approach to ECEA of Health Interventions
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, …
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, to estimate the health and economic benefits of health interventions and policies. Authors examined two different policies that can scale up the availability of drugs for secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in India: a universal public provision (UPP) that provides a drug for free at public health facilities, and a universal public finance (UPF) that provides a drug…
Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Asia & Pacific -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing extended …
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and detailing how it is conducted, and assembles ECEA publications and teaching materials. In addition to the videos, this teaching pack includes a glossary and tutorial. Videos include: Video 1. Introduction to ECEA (~2 min) Video 2. Quantifying Health Benefits (~4 min) Video 3. Private Expenditures Averted (~3 min) Video 4. Financial Risk Protection (~5 min) Video 5.…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Latent TB Screening before Immigration to Low-Incidence Countries
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening …
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening for active infections, screening for latent TB infection before immigration is rare. The authors used discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness preimmigration latent TB infection screening for migrants to low-incidence countries. They calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for migrants from countries with different TB incidences. Their analysis when combined with research on sustainability, acceptability, and program implementation can…
Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Government/Law | Global -
ReportPublication 2016DCP3: Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health
This report from the World Bank is the second volume of the Disease Control Priorities, …
This report from the World Bank is the second volume of the Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (DCP3) series. It focuses primarily on maternal conditions, childhood illnesses, and malnutrition, addressing topics from maternal mortality and morbidity, to acute illness and undernutrition in children under five, to the transition to older childhood and the illnesses that accompany this transition. The Disease Control Priorities Network (DCP) promotes and supports the use of economic evaluation for priority setting…
Costing Methods | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Global