Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2017Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Review
This article, published in Pharmacoeconomics, systematically reviews the literature in order to identify model-based studies …
This article, published in Pharmacoeconomics, systematically reviews the literature in order to identify model-based studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of treatments for depression and examine the appropriateness of different modelling technique for simulating the natural course of depression. The review yielded 41 model-based studies, of which 21 used decision trees (DTs), 15 used cohort-based state-transition Markov models (CMMs), two used individual-based state-transition models (ISMs), and three used discrete-event simulation (DES) models. Just over half of the…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Mental Health | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2017Use of Mathematical Models of Chlamydia Transmission to Address Public Health Policy Questions
This review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and offers perspective on how mathematical …
This review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and offers perspective on how mathematical modeling has responded over time to additional empirical evidence in order to address policy questions related to prevention of chlamydia infection. The authors reviewed published chlamydia models to understand the range of approaches used for policy analyses and how the studies have responded to developments in the field. The authors identified 47 publications reporting on 29 mathematical models through a…
Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
GuidelinesPublication 2016Decision Models in Clinical Preventive Services Recommendations
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) develops evidence-based recommendations about preventive care based on …
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) develops evidence-based recommendations about preventive care based on comprehensive systematic reviews of the best available evidence. Decision models provide a complementary, quantitative approach to support the USPSTF as it deliberates about the evidence and develops recommendations for clinical and policy use. This article describes the rationale for using modeling, an approach to selecting topics for modeling, and how modeling may inform recommendations about clinical preventive services.
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Health Outcomes | Decision Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Combining Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population …
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population dynamics. Microsimulation describes the population dynamics at the individual level, and actions conducted by the individuals are generated by stochastic processes. An emerging method is the agent-based model, which focuses on the interactions among individuals and expects to see unexpected situations created from the interactions. In the proposed hybrid model, the microsimulation model takes a role to depict how an…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Asia & Pacific -
BookPublication 2015Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes, 4th Edition
The 2015 edition of Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes provides a …
The 2015 edition of Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes provides a 'tool kit' for undertaking health economic evaluations. The report is aimed at researchers, health service professionals and policy makers without a formal economics background. The recommendations are based on the authors' own experiences and so are practical in nature. The book describes the challenges of allocating resources efficiently and fairly, including challenges in methodology and policy formation. Examples are provided.…
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Health Outcomes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Value of Information | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America