Resources Repository
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BookPublication 1978Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease
This report from the Institute of Medicine, The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery …
This report from the Institute of Medicine, The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease, was written to review and critique the decisions made around the 1976 swine flu threat. In 1976, a small group of soldiers at Fort Dix were infected with a swine flu virus that was deemed similar to the virus responsible for the great 1918-19 world-wide flu pandemic. The U.S. government initiated an unprecedented effort to immunize every American against…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | North America -
ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Autoimmune Encephalitis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model based on a published …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model based on a published cost-effectiveness analysis of routine screening for autoimmune encephalitis in patients with first-episode psychosis in the United States based on the published article: Ross EL, Becker JE, Linnoila JJ, Soeteman DI. Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Screening for Autoimmune Encephalitis in Patients with First-Episode Psychosis in the United States. J Clin Psychiatry 2020; 82 (1): 19m13168. The tutorial describes how to build the…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: CEA of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies …
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. This tutorial is based on the publication: Benamouzig R, Barré S, Saurin J-C et al. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology 2021; 14. About the Alan Colowick Innovation Fund The case-based tutorials in this teaching pack were created with support from the CHDS Alan Colowick Innovation Fund, established with…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Introduction to Programming Decision Trees
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate …
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate three initial management strategies for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on a published analysis: Soeteman DI, Stout NK, Ozanne EM et al. Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013; 105 (11): 774-781. The tutorial describes how to build the model structure, parameterize the model probabilities and outcomes based on…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global