Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Transparency and Validation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-7
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through …
This paper discusses how to improve trust in the use of health care models through validation and transparency. Validation involves face validity (wherein experts evaluate model structure, data sources, assumptions, and results), verification or internal validity (check accuracy of coding), cross validity (comparison of results with other models analyzing same problem), external validity (comparing model results to real-world results), and predictive validity (comparing model results with prospectively observed events). Recommendations are provided for nontechnical description…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Costing Methods | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-6
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity …
This paper discusses methods for the reporting of uncertainty, both in terms of deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques and probabilistic methods. Stochastic (first-order) uncertainty is distinguished from both parameter (second-order) uncertainty and from heterogeneity, with structural uncertainty relating to the model itself forming another level of uncertainty. The article describes the process of estimating model inputs, whether these are point estimates or distributions. It also explores the link between parameter uncertainty, decision uncertainty, and value-of-information analysis.…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Value of Information | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2011Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for …
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. They can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. This paper provided an overview of different types of simulation models used to evaluate the potential impact of policies to address the obesity epidemic.…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Decision Analysis | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Test Performance | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Working PaperPublication 2024Economic Evaluation Primer
Economic evaluation is a powerful tool, encouraging the systematic collection and assessment of the evidence …
Economic evaluation is a powerful tool, encouraging the systematic collection and assessment of the evidence needed to support sound policy decisions. In low- and middle-income countries, where resources are especially scarce and needs are very great, such decisions are exceptionally difficult. In these settings, economic evaluation can be particularly useful in determining how to best improve health and welfare. Typically, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used to prioritize interventions within the health care sector. This approach…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Global -
ArticlePublication 2024Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Interventions to Improve Uptake of Diabetes Services in South Africa
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes …
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes diagnosis and treatment service utilization in South Africa (SA) using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). Applying a Markov model over a 45-year period, the analysis compares costs, health benefits, and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of different CCT strategies, drawing from SA-specific data. Three scenarios were simulated: covering diagnosis services only, treatment services only, and both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness,…
Mathematical Models | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing …
This resource pack provides a curated set of articles, perspectives, and interactives about diagnostic testing for COVID-19. The pack provides materials that will be particularly useful for educators who are teaching diagnostic test performance, value of information, and probability revision using Bayes’ theorem. The majority of papers focus on PCR or rapid antigen testing on samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. The mechanism of false negative results (e.g., timing of sample collection…
Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ToolWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024Teaching Pack: Amua Modeling Platform
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides students with a …
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides students with a hands-on opportunity to gain experience to use the open-access decision science software, Amua. These resources are intended for students with a basic understanding of decision science. Materials include Amua introductory videos, basic decision modeling tutorials for decision trees and Markov models, and case-based tutorials based on analyses in published literature. About Amua Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Autoimmune Encephalitis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model based on a published …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model based on a published cost-effectiveness analysis of routine screening for autoimmune encephalitis in patients with first-episode psychosis in the United States based on the published article: Ross EL, Becker JE, Linnoila JJ, Soeteman DI. Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Screening for Autoimmune Encephalitis in Patients with First-Episode Psychosis in the United States. J Clin Psychiatry 2020; 82 (1): 19m13168. The tutorial describes how to build the…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional