Resources Repository
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ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Maternal Health Models and CEA
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, provides selected examples of modeling approaches used to conduct analyses relevant to maternal and reproductive health. Some papers focus on a particular problem (e.g., screening for prenatal syphilis, comparison of alternative strategies for safe abortion), while others explore strategies for reducing morbidity and mortality from the entire spectrum of pregnancy and childbirth-related complications. Several of the examples model the primary drivers of maternal mortality (e.g.,…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Science/Technology | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Probability/Bayes | Climate/Environment | Decision Psychology | Injuries/Accidents | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
Lesson/ModuleVideo, Teaching Resource 2018Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are …
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are needed for decision models. Presented are the concepts of literature based Odds Ratios and Relative Risks, which need to be transformed into probabilities, how to deal with probability estimates from time frames not relevant to the model in question, and how to derive probabilities from published summary statistics. This lecture is aimed at the researcher who is interested in operationalizing…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Mental Health and Modeling
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features resources on modeling …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features resources on modeling approaches applied to mental health. We aim to provide an overview of different techniques to guide researchers and practitioners in applying decision science and economic modeling to this public health challenge. More specifically, this resource pack contains review articles comparing different modeling techniques in the evaluation of treatments for depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The majority of articles in this…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | North America | Europe -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Introduction to Decision Analysis
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to …
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to the field of decision analysis in the context of public health. After differentiating simple "relatively automatic" decisions from those that might require more systematic analysis, students are introduced to the core elements of a decision analysis (e.g., objectives, alternatives, probabilities, and outcomes), and the basic steps of a decision analysis. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary,…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Probability Revision and Bayes
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications …
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Learning Objectives Demonstrate a conceptual understanding of Bayes’ theorem and probability revision. Differentiate between test characteristics (e.g., probability of positive test given…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Using Test Information I
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information I, students review the performance of a …
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information I, students review the performance of a dichotomous test and the relationship between sensitivity and specificity, calculate likelihood ratios to describe test performance, and conduct probability revision using the odds-LR form of Bayes. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, and sample exercises. Learning Objectives Calculate four conditional probabilities describing the performance of a dichotomous test, and explain the…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Child/Nutrition | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Using Test Information II
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information II, students are introduced to tests with …
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information II, students are introduced to tests with continuous or categorical results, and calculate the sensitivity and specificity conditional on different 'cutoff points' or 'positivity criterion'. They are introduced to ROC curves and explore the implications of operating at different parts of the curve for any single test. They calculate the optimal positivity criterion given information on the prior, the test performance, and the relative consequences of true…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy