Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Priority Setting in Early Childhood Development: An Analytical Framework
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences …
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences for education, labor market outcomes, and other domains of well-being. Even though many ECD interventions are implemented and evaluated globally, there is currently no standardized framework for comparing these interventions’ relative cost-effectiveness. The investigators developed an economic evaluation framework that focuses on the immediate impact of ECD interventions targeting motor, cognitive, language, and socioemotional skills. They applied the framework to compute…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Global -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLOS Collection: Economic Efficiency of HIV Services
In order to maximize the value for money for HIV services and increase efficiency without …
In order to maximize the value for money for HIV services and increase efficiency without sacrificing quality, robust and up-to-date data on costs, efficiency and its determinants are needed. This PLOS collection, Economic Efficiency of HIV Services, presents recent, high-quality evidence from low- and middle-income countries on costs and technical efficiency of HIV services and their determinants. These data contribute to the current discussion on optimizing resources for HIV services and can provide programmatic guidance for…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Operations Research | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Risk Analysis | Decision Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Operations Research | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2016An Economic Evaluation of the PEN Program in Indonesia
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) …
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Package of Essential Noncommunicable disease (PEN) interventions. Several countries, including Indonesia, implemented the PEN program. To assess the value of the investment in the current program, an economic evaluation of the program was conducted with collaboration between the Ministry of Health in Indonesia, the WHO, and the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI). This study evaluated the delivery of…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Technology Assessment | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Operations Research | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | North America