Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Risk Analysis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Culture/Society | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America | Graduate -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLoS Collection: Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted …
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur each day, incurring a very substantial burden of morbidity, mortality and additional infections. The pathogens responsible include bacteria, parasites and viruses, and intensive research is needed to address the substantial barriers to diagnosis and treatment of STIs, and the behavioral challenges of prevention. This PLOS collection, published in collaboration with WHO, focuses on global policy and systems…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2016“Nudges” in Law and Policy
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of …
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of law and public policy—those that target “system 1” thinking, meaning the intuitive, emotion-based mechanisms, such as graphic warnings and default rules, versus those that target “system 2” thinking, the rational, deliberative form of cognition, such as statistical information or education-based messages.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Government/Law