Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Decision Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Business/Industry | Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Operations Research | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering -
ArticlePublication 2013Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used …
This paper compares alternative strategies to manage ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The authors used a disease simulation model to simulate the clinical events after six treatments (lumpectomy alone, lumpectomy with radiation, lumpectomy with radiation and tamoxifen, lumpectomy with tamoxifen, and mastectomy with and without breast reconstruction). Outcomes included disease-free, invasive disease-free, overall survival and breast preservation. Data were from the published literature. The results showed that for women aged 45 years at diagnosis, both mastectomy…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2023Evaluation of Diversity of Clinical Trials Informing Health Technology Assessments in the United States: A 5-Year Analysis of Institute for Clinical and Economic Review Assessments
The study assessed the diversity of clinical trials informing assessments by the Institute for Clinical …
The study assessed the diversity of clinical trials informing assessments by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) over five years (2017-2021). It conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 208 pivotal trials across 31 conditions. Findings revealed inadequate representation of racial/ethnic minorities and older adults, with Blacks/African Americans, American Indians/Alaska Natives, and Hispanics/Latinos being notably underrepresented. Whites, Asians, and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders were adequately represented. US-based trials better represented Blacks/African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos but…
Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine | Evidence Synthesis | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Evolving Nature of Health Technology Assessment: A Critical Appraisal of NICE's New Methods Manual
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) updated its Health Technology Evaluation manual …
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) updated its Health Technology Evaluation manual in 2022, merging processes from all 4 Health Technology Evaluation programs into a single document. Key changes include introducing a new disease severity modifier while maintaining existing methods on health inequality, discounting, unrelated healthcare costs, and value of information. Changes were categorized by importance, with most being modest updates or clarifications aligning with existing principles. The methods involved a 2-stage…
Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2023Context Matters: Emotional Sensitivity to Probabilities and the Bias for Action in Cancer Treatment Decisions
The study investigates the commission bias in cancer treatment decisions and its association with emotional …
The study investigates the commission bias in cancer treatment decisions and its association with emotional sensitivity to probabilities (ESP), which reflects how individuals gauge emotional reactions to probability information. Participants (N = 1,055) made hypothetical treatment choices between surgery and watchful waiting under varying mortality probabilities. Logistic regression analysis, incorporating the Possibility Probability Questionnaire (PPQ) and other individual differences, revealed a commission bias favoring surgery regardless of mortality probabilities. An interaction effect indicated that higher…
Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Chronic Disease/Risk