Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2019Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan …
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan using a decision analytical model and microsimulation techniques from 2015 to 2030. Various scenarios, including the status quo and seven elimination strategies, were evaluated based on Pakistan-specific variables. Main outcomes included trends in HCV prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years, and total costs of HCV care. Results suggest that to achieve HCV elimination by 2030, significant scale-up of testing and treatment is…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Latent TB Screening before Immigration to Low-Incidence Countries
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening …
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening for active infections, screening for latent TB infection before immigration is rare. The authors used discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness preimmigration latent TB infection screening for migrants to low-incidence countries. They calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for migrants from countries with different TB incidences. Their analysis when combined with research on sustainability, acceptability, and program implementation can…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2018Should We Treat Acute Hepatitis C? A Decision and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared …
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared to deferring treatment until the chronic phase, utilizing a microsimulation model. By projecting long-term outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs, the analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating therapy during the acute phase. Results indicate that treating acute HCV increases QALYs by 0.02 and costs by $483 per patient not at risk of transmitting HCV, yielding an incremental…
Decision Analysis | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Combining Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population …
This paper proposes a hybrid model structure combining microsimulation and agent-based modeling to simulate population dynamics. Microsimulation describes the population dynamics at the individual level, and actions conducted by the individuals are generated by stochastic processes. An emerging method is the agent-based model, which focuses on the interactions among individuals and expects to see unexpected situations created from the interactions. In the proposed hybrid model, the microsimulation model takes a role to depict how an…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost of a Primary Care-Based Childhood Obesity Prevention Intervention
This study evaluated the cost of a primary care-based obesity prevention intervention (High Five for …
This study evaluated the cost of a primary care-based obesity prevention intervention (High Five for Kids) for children ages 2-6 years, compared to usual care. U.S. pediatric guidelines recommend that childhood obesity counseling be done in primary care settings. The clinical trial aimed to modify children’s nutrition and TV viewing habits through a motivational interviewing intervention. The authors assessed the visit-related costs for children enrolled in the trial, and found that the mean costs for…
Decision Analysis | Costing Methods | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global