Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2010Empirically Evaluating Decision-Analytic Models
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors …
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, they applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Women Aged 30+ Years in the U.S.
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV …
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV vaccination in older U.S. women. The authors conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with an empirically calibrated model using data from published literature; interventions included HPV vaccination added to screening strategies that differ by test (cytology or HPV DNA testing), frequency, and start age versus screening alone.They found that in the context of annual or biennial screening, HPV vaccination of women aged…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Pregnancy Termination Strategies in Mexico City
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques …
This study evaluated the health and economic outcomes associated with three alternative first-trimester abortion techniques in Mexico City using a computer-based model to simulate induced abortion and its potential complications. Strategies included alternative modalities for first-trimester pregnancy termination: hospital-based dilatation and curettage (D&C), hospital-based manual vacuum aspiration (MVA), clinic-based MVA and medical abortion using vaginal misoprostol. Outcomes included number of complications, lifetime costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Assuming all options were equally available,…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | State-Transition | Health Outcomes | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2006Can Discrete Event Simulation be of Use in Modeling Major Depression?
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov …
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov models in depression and identified potential limitations in using this particular modelling approach in this disease area. Additionally, the authors develop a “Discrete Event Simulation” (DES) model to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. The findings of this study indicate that the most important limitation of using Markov models in depression is…
Microsimulation | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Mental Health | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2024Hypertension Care Cascades and Reducing Inequities in Cardiovascular Disease in LMIC
This study investigates the distributional implications of enhancing hypertension control in low- and middle-income countries …
This study investigates the distributional implications of enhancing hypertension control in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across wealth quintiles. Using individual-level data from nationally representative surveys in 44 LMICs, the researchers simulated improvements in the hypertension care cascade and assessed the distributional benefits. They raised diagnosis and treatment levels for all wealth quintiles to match the best-performing country quintile and estimated the resulting change in 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Results indicate greater health benefits…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths with Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 U.S. States
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily …
This study utilizes a decision analytical model to simulate the opioid epidemic in four heavily impacted states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. By analyzing the effects of increased initiation and retention of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUDs) and enhanced naloxone distribution over a 2 to 5-year timeframe, the research assesses the potential reduction in opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Results indicate that sustaining a combination of interventions could lead to substantial reductions in OODs,…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021CEA of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals
Fecal occult blood testing with an immunochemical test (FIT) is generally considered as the most …
Fecal occult blood testing with an immunochemical test (FIT) is generally considered as the most cost-effective alternative in colorectal cancer screening programs for average risk individuals without family history. Colorectal screening guidelines recommend colonoscopy every 3-5 years for high-risk individuals with a family history. The authors use a microsimulation model of the natural history of colorectal cancer (CRC) to compare the costs, quality-adjusted life years, and cost effectiveness associated with several screening strategies in high-risk individuals,…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine