Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ReportPublication 2013Decision and Simulation Modeling Alongside Systematic Reviews
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks …
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic model alongside a systemic review would be of added value for decision making purposes. The chapter discusses the role of decision analysis and decision-analytic models in health care, specifically within the context of the current emphasis on evidence-based medicine and the proliferation of systematic reviews. It describes the types of model available…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Evidence Synthesis | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Risk Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Including Boys in a HPV Vaccination Program in the U.S.
This article reports on a societal-perspective cost effectiveness analysis of including preadolescent boys in a …
This article reports on a societal-perspective cost effectiveness analysis of including preadolescent boys in a routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for preadolescent girls. The analysis included girls and boys aged 12 years; interventions included HPV vaccination of girls alone and of girls and boys in the context of screening for cervical cancer. The authors found that with 75% vaccination coverage and an assumption of complete, lifelong vaccine efficacy, routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the U.S.
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical …
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls in the US (at 12 years of age), and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). The study also examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global