Resources Repository
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ReportPublication 2016Modeling to Inform Strategies to Improve Population Health
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential …
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential uses of simulation and other types of modeling for improving health. Participants worked to identify how modeling could inform population health decision making (selecting and refining potential strategies, ranging from interventions to investments) based on lessons learned from models that have been, or have not been, used successfully, opportunities and barriers to incorporating models into decision making, and data needs and…
Mathematical Models | Climate/Environment | Business/Industry | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Science/Technology | Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Science/Technology | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ReportPublication 2003ISPOR Task Force Report: Good Practice for Decision Analytic Modeling in Health-Care
This report describes the consensus of a task force convened to provide modelers with guidelines …
This report describes the consensus of a task force convened to provide modelers with guidelines for conducting and reporting modeling studies. While published more than a decade ago, it remains a clearly written resource for thinking about how to accurately describe the components of models and their quality. Criteria for assessing the quality of models fell into three areas: model structure, data used as inputs to models, and model validation. Several major themes cut across…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Science/Technology | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 …
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 billion in March 2021 for testing in schools. The study aimed to analyze the costs and benefits of different COVID-19 testing strategies, particularly focusing on full-time, in-person elementary and middle school education. Utilizing an updated agent-based network model, the study simulated transmission scenarios in schools, considering various testing strategies ranging from diagnostic testing (test-to-stay) to reduce symptom-based isolations, routine screening…
Mathematical Models | Science/Technology | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Mathematical Models | Business/Industry | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2018Equity Impact Vaccines May Have on Averting Deaths and Medical Impoverishment
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases …
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. The study found that vaccines administered between 2016 and 2030 would prevent 36 million deaths. Vaccines will have the greatest impact on reducing cases of poverty caused by hepatitis B, helping an estimated 14 million people avoid medical impoverishment. An…
Mathematical Models | Science/Technology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Mathematical Models | Climate/Environment | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ReportPublication 2015Chapter 4: Cervical Cancer
This chapter focuses on the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer as a result …
This chapter focuses on the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer as a result of the introduction of two commercially available vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV). Few low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have initiated or sustained cytology-based cervical cancer prevention programs, and these countries experience very high incidence and mortality rates. Fortunately, alternative strategies to prevent cervical cancer have been investigated and extensively evaluated in these settings. The authors report findings from cost-effectiveness analyses…
Mathematical Models | Science/Technology | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global