Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Benefit and Harm of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment: Derivation and Validation of Risk Models Using Data from the Sprint and Accord Trials
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some …
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. The authors sought to create risk calculators to estimate individual patients’ chances of benefit and harm from intensive treatment. They developed statistical models of cardiovascular events and serious adverse events from individual participant data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) of intensive blood pressure treatment (N = 9,069 with complete covariate data) and validated them…
Probability/Bayes | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2017Costs of Facility-Based HIV Testing in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to …
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to HIV treatment and prevention services for the millions of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors sought to explore the costs of providing these services across three southern African countries with high HIV burden.Primary costing studies were undertaken in 54 health facilities providing HIV testing services (HTS) in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data for…
Technology Assessment | Costing Methods | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016An Economic Evaluation of the PEN Program in Indonesia
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) …
Responding to the economic and health burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Package of Essential Noncommunicable disease (PEN) interventions. Several countries, including Indonesia, implemented the PEN program. To assess the value of the investment in the current program, an economic evaluation of the program was conducted with collaboration between the Ministry of Health in Indonesia, the WHO, and the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI). This study evaluated the delivery of…
Technology Assessment | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Calibration/Validation | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReportPublication 2015Improving Diagnosis in Health Care
Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an …
Getting the right diagnosis is a key aspect of health care - it provides an explanation of a patient's health problem and informs subsequent health care decisions. The diagnostic process is a complex, collaborative activity that involves clinical reasoning and information gathering to determine a patient's health problem. This report, Improving Diagnosis in Health Care, explains that diagnostic errors-inaccurate or delayed diagnoses-persist throughout all settings of care and continue to harm an unacceptable number of patients.…
Probability/Bayes | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReportPublication 2015Opioid Dependence: Final Report
This report from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) examines the comparative effectiveness and value …
This report from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) examines the comparative effectiveness and value of interventions for the management of opioid dependence. The goals of the report are to document the federal and New England state regulations affecting treatment options, provide an overview of existing clinical guidelines and payer coverage policies, and summarize the evidence on the different management approaches for opioid dependence, including special considerations for adolescents. An appendix is provided by ICER.…
Technology Assessment | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America