Resources Repository
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BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense -
BookPublication 2014Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and …
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostic uncertainties. Medical therapies have side effects, surgical interventions may lead to complications, and diagnostic tests can produce misleading results. Furthermore, patient values and service costs must be considered. Decisions in clinical and health policy require careful weighing of risks and benefits and are commonly a trade-off of competing objectives: maximizing quality of life vs maximizing life expectancy vs minimizing…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Costing Methods | Government/Law | Global | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Theory | Government/Law | Global | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2017When Cost-Effective Interventions Are Unaffordable
Many health interventions deemed cost-effective are not affordable. Despite the importance of affordability to policymakers, …
Many health interventions deemed cost-effective are not affordable. Despite the importance of affordability to policymakers, little of the cost-effectiveness literature in global health addresses this issue. Budget impact analysis (BIA) describes an intervention's short-term costs and savings from the payer's perspective. This paper assesses the current use of budget impact analysis (BIA) and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in health economic assessments conducted for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The authors recommend steps researchers and policymakers can…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Government/Law | Global | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Psychology | Government/Law | Global | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2020Infectious Disease Pandemic Planning and Response: Incorporating Decision Analysis
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in …
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in analytical methods for gaining early situational awareness (i.e., of a disease’s transmissibility and severity) and for predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions, a major gap exists globally in terms of integrating this information in policy documents. The authors argue that mathematical and statistical models are important tools for pandemic planning and response. Once an outbreak of pandemic potential has been…
Decision Analysis | Government/Law | Global | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Misinformation in and About Science
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we …
Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we know. Misinformation undermines this process. The repercussions are extensive. Without reliable and accurate sources of information, we cannot hope to halt climate change, make reasoned democratic decisions, or control a global pandemic. Most analyses of misinformation focus on popular and social media, but the scientific enterprise faces a parallel set of problems – from hype and hyperbole to publication bias…
Decision Psychology | Government/Law | Global | Preferences/Values | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Misinformation Has Created a New World Disorder
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from …
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from fabricated videos to impersonated accounts to memes designed to manipulate genuine content, (2) automation and microtargeting tactics have made it easier for agents of disinformation to weaponize regular users of the social web to spread harmful messages, and (3) much research is needed to understand the effects of disinformation and build safeguards against it. This description was adapted from the…
Decision Psychology | Government/Law | Global | Preferences/Values | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America