Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Global -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Implications of HPV Vaccination in the U.S.
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical …
This article reports on a study using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls in the US (at 12 years of age), and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). The study also examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in Latin America and the Caribbean
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted …
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of young adolescent girls using population and epidemiologic data for 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The authors found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied between countries, depending on incidence, proportion attributable to HPV-16 and 18, and population age-structure; for…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Latin America & Caribbean -
ReportPublication 2016Modeling to Inform Strategies to Improve Population Health
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential …
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential uses of simulation and other types of modeling for improving health. Participants worked to identify how modeling could inform population health decision making (selecting and refining potential strategies, ranging from interventions to investments) based on lessons learned from models that have been, or have not been, used successfully, opportunities and barriers to incorporating models into decision making, and data needs and…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Government/Law | North America -
ReportPublication 2013Decision and Simulation Modeling Alongside Systematic Reviews
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks …
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic model alongside a systemic review would be of added value for decision making purposes. The chapter discusses the role of decision analysis and decision-analytic models in health care, specifically within the context of the current emphasis on evidence-based medicine and the proliferation of systematic reviews. It describes the types of model available…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Evidence Synthesis | Health Systems | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Decision Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Global -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | North America