Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Preferences/Values | Probability/Bayes | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Valuing Mortality Risk: Per Life, Life Year, or QALY?
It is important to consider age and other relevant factors when assessing the value associated …
It is important to consider age and other relevant factors when assessing the value associated with reducing risks to ensure a comprehensive and accurate understanding of its impact. In a recent paper, it is explained that the value of risk reduction, whether it is a temporary or persistent reduction, can be defined using the "value per statistical life" (VSL), "value per statistical life year" (VSLY), or "value per quality-adjusted life year" (VQALY).
Preferences/Values | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Risk Analysis | Benefit-Cost Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Estimating Joint Health State Utilities
Estimating health utility for a health state defined by a single health condition is relatively …
Estimating health utility for a health state defined by a single health condition is relatively straightforward but becomes more complicated when 2 or more health conditions co-occur. Estimating health utility for so-called “joint health states” is particularly critical for health conditions that commonly co-occur with other conditions or for treatments in which adverse events are common or serious. In these cases, ignoring the utility loss associated with the joint health state can bias CEA results…
Preferences/Values | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
ArticlePublication 2022Health Utility of Drinkers' Family Members
Problematic alcohol use is known to harm individuals surrounding the drinker. This study described the …
Problematic alcohol use is known to harm individuals surrounding the drinker. This study described the health utility of people who reported having a family member(s) whom they perceived as a “problem drinker.” Using a US population dataset, and adjusting for other drinking-related factors, perceiving a family member as a problem drinker was associated with lower health utility on the order of 0.033 (P < 0.001) for a spouse/partner to 0.023 (P < 0.001) for a…
Preferences/Values | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Identifying Credible Sources of Health Information in Social Media: Principles and Attributes
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. …
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. The potential for information shared through social media to influence health outcomes necessitates action by social media platforms to enhance access and exposure to high-quality, science-based information. This paper summarizes the work of an independent advisory group convened by the National Academy of Medicine that deliberated and gathered information to develop a set of initial principles and attributes that could…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Why the Backfire Effect Does Not Explain the Durability of Political Misperceptions
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which …
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which respondents more strongly endorsed a misperception about a controversial political or scientific issue when their beliefs or predispositions were challenged. This article shows how subsequent research and media coverage seized on this finding, distorting its generality and exaggerating its role relative to other factors in explaining the durability of political misperceptions. To the contrary, an emerging research consensus finds that…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Scientific Theory of Gist Communication and Misinformation Resistance
This article presents a framework for understanding how misinformation shapes decision-making, which has cognitive representations …
This article presents a framework for understanding how misinformation shapes decision-making, which has cognitive representations of gist at its core. The author discusses how the framework goes beyond prior work, and how it can be implemented so that valid scientific messages are more likely to be effective, remembered, and shared through social media, while misinformation is resisted. The distinction between mental representations of the rote facts of a message – its verbatim representation – and…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America