Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2020Infectious Disease Pandemic Planning and Response: Incorporating Decision Analysis
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in …
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in analytical methods for gaining early situational awareness (i.e., of a disease’s transmissibility and severity) and for predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions, a major gap exists globally in terms of integrating this information in policy documents. The authors argue that mathematical and statistical models are important tools for pandemic planning and response. Once an outbreak of pandemic potential has been…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Government/Law | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America | Graduate -
ArticlePublication 2013Agent-Based Simulation Modelling Approach to ECEA of Health Interventions
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, …
This study develops a dynamic agent-based simulation model, the Disease Control Priorities Simulation (DCPSim) model, to estimate the health and economic benefits of health interventions and policies. Authors examined two different policies that can scale up the availability of drugs for secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in India: a universal public provision (UPP) that provides a drug for free at public health facilities, and a universal public finance (UPF) that provides a drug…
Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan …
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan using a decision analytical model and microsimulation techniques from 2015 to 2030. Various scenarios, including the status quo and seven elimination strategies, were evaluated based on Pakistan-specific variables. Main outcomes included trends in HCV prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years, and total costs of HCV care. Results suggest that to achieve HCV elimination by 2030, significant scale-up of testing and treatment is…
Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Asia & Pacific