Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication, Teaching Resource 2018Behavioral Economics Guide 2018
The 2018 Behavioral Economics Guide provides an introduction to behavioral economics, a review of developments …
The 2018 Behavioral Economics Guide provides an introduction to behavioral economics, a review of developments in the field, insights from practitioners, and general resources such as postgraduate programs and scholarly journals. This is the fifth edition of this now yearly publication. The 2018 edition features an introduction written by Robert Cialdini. Behavioraleconomics.com is the official home of the Behavioral Economics Guide. The guide is downloadable free of charge from the website.
Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016“Nudges” in Law and Policy
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of …
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of law and public policy—those that target “system 1” thinking, meaning the intuitive, emotion-based mechanisms, such as graphic warnings and default rules, versus those that target “system 2” thinking, the rational, deliberative form of cognition, such as statistical information or education-based messages.
Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Theory | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Incorporating Equity in Infectious Disease Modeling: Measles
Deterministic compartmental models of infectious diseases like measles typically reflect biological heterogeneities in the risk …
Deterministic compartmental models of infectious diseases like measles typically reflect biological heterogeneities in the risk of infection and severity to characterize transmission dynamics. Given the known association of socioeconomic status and increased vulnerability to infection and mortality, it is also critical that such models further incorporate social heterogeneities. This article explores the influence of integrating income-associated differences in parameters of traditional dynamic transmission models. The authors developed a measles “SIR” model, in which the
Dynamic Transmission | Priority Setting/Ethics -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Calibration/Validation | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global