Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2023Designing Guidelines for Those Who Do Not Follow Them: Impact of Adherence Assumptions on Optimal Screening Guidelines
This study examines the impact of real-world screening adherence on the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer …
This study examines the impact of real-world screening adherence on the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening guidelines. Using a microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis, the researchers projected long-term health and economic outcomes for 18 screening algorithms under various adherence scenarios. These included perfect adherence, eight high- and low-coverage "random-complier" scenarios, and three "systematic-complier" scenarios reflecting conditional screening behavior over a lifetime. Results showed that perfect adherence favored the least intensive screening strategy, while any level…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness and Long-Term Savings of the Bright Bodies Intervention for Childhood Obesity
This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Bright Bodies, a family-based pediatric weight management intervention, using …
This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Bright Bodies, a family-based pediatric weight management intervention, using a microsimulation model projecting 10-year BMI trajectories of children with obesity. Data from a randomized controlled trial and follow-up study inform the model, which estimates the intervention's effect on BMI reduction and incremental costs compared to clinical control. Results indicate that Bright Bodies reduces BMI by 1.67 kg/m2 per year over 10 years, with an incremental cost of $360 per…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes, Costs, Cost-Effectiveness
This study presents a microsimulation model designed to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness …
This study presents a microsimulation model designed to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States. Unlike existing models that rely on UK data, this model incorporates newly derived risk equations based on US studies, enhancing its applicability to the US context. The model features a highly modular architecture allowing for easy addition of new modules and interventions, facilitating policy decision-making. Internal validation showed good performance,…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Context Matters: Emotional Sensitivity to Probabilities and the Bias for Action in Cancer Treatment Decisions
The study investigates the commission bias in cancer treatment decisions and its association with emotional …
The study investigates the commission bias in cancer treatment decisions and its association with emotional sensitivity to probabilities (ESP), which reflects how individuals gauge emotional reactions to probability information. Participants (N = 1,055) made hypothetical treatment choices between surgery and watchful waiting under varying mortality probabilities. Logistic regression analysis, incorporating the Possibility Probability Questionnaire (PPQ) and other individual differences, revealed a commission bias favoring surgery regardless of mortality probabilities. An interaction effect indicated that higher…
Decision Psychology | Health/Medicine | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2023Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, …
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, using the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model as a case study. ML algorithms, including deep neural networks (DNN), were trained and compared using data generated from the CRC-AIM model to predict various outcomes. The DNN outperformed other algorithms and efficiently predicted outcomes, reducing computational burden significantly. The calibrated CRC-AIM model demonstrated cross-model validity against established CISNET models…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Re-Evaluating the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Prevention for Modern ART Cohorts
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in …
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as individuals initiate ART earlier in the course of disease, TB incidence is lower, and it is unclear how ART cost-effectiveness has changed. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TPT in contemporary ART cohorts. The authors developed a microsimulation model of TB and HIV and parameterised it using data from a large HIV…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Masked Hypertension Screening and Treatment
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in …
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in U.S. adults using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, a microsimulation model. The model simulated 100,000 adults suspected of having masked hypertension (office blood pressure [BP] of 120–129/<80 mm Hg, not on antihypertensive medications, and without a history of CVD). Interventions included: usual care alone, usual care with ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), and usual care with home BP monitoring (HBPM).…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | North America