Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Global Governance | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Transmission | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Measuring Benefits of Opioid Misuse Treatment: HRQOL of Opioid-Dependent Individuals and Spouses
This study sought to understand how the general public views the quality of life effects …
This study sought to understand how the general public views the quality of life effects of opioid misuse and opioid use disorder on an individual and his/her spouse, measured in terms used in economic evaluations. The study design was a cross-sectional internet survey of a US population-representative respondent panel conducted December 2013-January 2014, with a total of 2054 randomly selected adults, of whom 51.1% were male. The mean individual utility ranged from 0.574 for active injection…
Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016“Nudges” in Law and Policy
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of …
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of law and public policy—those that target “system 1” thinking, meaning the intuitive, emotion-based mechanisms, such as graphic warnings and default rules, versus those that target “system 2” thinking, the rational, deliberative form of cognition, such as statistical information or education-based messages.
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Broader Economic Impact of Vaccination: Reviewing and Appraising the Strength of Evidence
Economic evaluations of public health programs such as immunization often consider only direct health benefits and …
Economic evaluations of public health programs such as immunization often consider only direct health benefits and medical cost savings. Evidence linking immunization to important benefits in indicators such as childhood development, household behavior, and other macro-economic data are unclear. A conceptual framework of the pathways between immunization and these broader economic benefits was developed through expert consultation. The authors obtained articles from previous reviews, snowballing, and expert consultation, and associated them with one of the pathways and assessed them using modified Grading…
Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Economics/Finance | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Valuing Regulations Affecting Addictive or Habitual Goods
The analysis of regulations affecting addictive or habitual goods has drawn considerable controversy. Some studies …
The analysis of regulations affecting addictive or habitual goods has drawn considerable controversy. Some studies have suggested that such regulations have only small welfare benefits, as consumers value these goods despite health benefits from quitting, while other studies suggest that information or behavioral problems make existing consumption decisions a poor guide to welfare evaluation. This analysis examines potential utility offsets to health benefits of regulations affecting addictive or habitual goods theoretically and empirically. The paper…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015A Conceptual Model for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process …
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. This paper presents a conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based…
Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Test Performance | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Controlling Measles Using Supplemental Immunization: A Mathematical Model
The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support …
The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). Authors estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden using an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. They explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve…
Dynamic Transmission | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific