Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Sub-Saharan Africa | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of a Policy Strategy to Decrease Sodium Intake: Global Analysis
The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a government policy combining …
The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a government policy combining targeted industry agreements and public education to reduce sodium intake in 183 countries worldwide. To account for heterogeneity in efficacy across countries, a range of scenarios were evaluated, including 10%, 30%, 0.5 g/day, and 1.5 g/day sodium reductions achieved over 10 years. Country specific costs of a sodium reduction policy were estimated using the WHO Noncommunicable Disease Costing Tool. Country…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health: Key Messages from DCP3
As part of the Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition, the World Bank has published a …
As part of the Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition, the World Bank has published a volume on Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health that identifies essential cost-effective health interventions that can be scaled-up now to reduce maternal, newborn and child deaths, and stillbirths. This article summarizes the key findings and estimates the impact and cost of expanded implementation of these interventions. Scaling up all preventive and therapeutic health interventions in these integrated packages from current…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Costing Methods | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Country-Level Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds
This article estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) for health interventions in several low and middle-income …
This article estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) for health interventions in several low and middle-income countries (LMICs), based on opportunity costs. When there are constraints on a health care system’s budget or ability to increase expenditures, additional costs imposed by interventions have an “opportunity cost” in terms of the health foregone because other interventions cannot be provided. The authors argue that cost-effectiveness thresholds should reflect health opportunity cost and aim to calculate these in four…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Europe | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Health Gains & Financial Protection from Ethiopian Mental Health Strategy: An ECEA
Using the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA), this paper evaluates the impacts of fully publicly financed …
Using the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA), this paper evaluates the impacts of fully publicly financed care for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and epilepsy as part of the mental and neurological package (MN) of the National Mental Health Strategy in Ethiopia. The following outcomes were estimated disaggregated across wealth quintiles: (1) healthy-life-years (HALYs) gained; (2) household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures averted (3) expected financial risk protection (FRP); and (4) productivity impact. The MN package is expected to…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mental Health | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnosing HIV Infection During Early Infancy in South Africa
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis …
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) testing strategies for HIV-exposed infants in South Africa were compared using a microsimulation model. The strategies included (1) no EID (diagnosis only after illness), (2) and (3) testing once (at birth alone or at 6 weeks of age alone), and (4) testing twice (at birth and 6 weeks of age). Findings showed that the testing at birth alone strategy…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular Disease
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of …
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in an Ethiopian setting. Fifteen single interventions and sixteen intervention packages are assessed from a healthcare provider perspective. The results indicate that the escalating burden of CVD and its risk factors warrants timely action. Selected CVD intervention packages could be scaled up at a modest budget increase, but the level…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Sub-Saharan Africa | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine