- decision theory
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Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2016Choosing an Epidemiological Model Structure for Economic Evaluation
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic …
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to a greater need for prevention of chronic diseases. In order for decision makers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Culture/Society | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2016Remembering Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on …
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on the fields of systems analysis and operations research. He guided the introduction of the decision sciences into numerous fields such as business, medicine, public health, the environmental sciences, and law, and was instrumental in building world-recognized institutions such as the Kennedy School at Harvard and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, Austria. This article is a thoughtful tribute by…
Operations Research | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | North America -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Operations Research | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Business/Industry | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Decision Psychology | Risk Analysis | Culture/Society | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of U.S. National SSB Tax with a Multistakeholder Approach: Who Pays and Who Benefits
This analysis estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) …
This analysis estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for nine distinct stakeholder groups. A microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for U.S. adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. Results showed that from both a health care and societal perspective, the SSB tax was…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Business/Industry | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2018Cost-Effectiveness of Financial Incentives and Disincentives for Improving Food Purchases and Health through SNAP
This analysis estimated the health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions …
This analysis estimated the health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). A microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) was used to compare three policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus). From a societal perspective, all three scenarios…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Business/Industry | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2018Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies to Prevent Road Traffic Injuries in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia: New Results from WHO-CHOICE
The authors applied a generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) approach, applying a null reference case, in …
The authors applied a generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) approach, applying a null reference case, in which the effects of currently implemented interventions were subtracted from current rates of burden, in order to identify the most efficient package of interventions that could be applied to Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs). They used a population model to estimate costs and effectiveness of interventions over a 100 year time frame in eastern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. All heath…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | State-Transition | Culture/Society | Injuries/Accidents | Policy/Regulation | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2015Benefits of Scaling a Home-Based Neonatal Care Package in Rural India
In 2011, India introduced a home-based newborn care (HBNC) package to be delivered by community …
In 2011, India introduced a home-based newborn care (HBNC) package to be delivered by community health workers across rural areas. The authors estimate the disease and economic burden that could be averted by scaling up the HBNC in rural India using IndiaSim, an agent-based simulation model. Under one scenario, the existing community health worker network begins providing HBNC for rural households without access to home- or facility-based newborn care. In the second scenario, coverage of…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Culture/Society | Costing Methods | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific