Resources Repository
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Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Injuries/Accidents | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
Lesson/ModuleVideo, Teaching Resource 2018Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are …
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are needed for decision models. Presented are the concepts of literature based Odds Ratios and Relative Risks, which need to be transformed into probabilities, how to deal with probability estimates from time frames not relevant to the model in question, and how to derive probabilities from published summary statistics. This lecture is aimed at the researcher who is interested in operationalizing…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Evidence Synthesis | Health/Medicine | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Resource Pack: Books on Decision Making and Thinking
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features books about how …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features books about how we think, learn, and decide. We aim to provide an introduction to some of the core concepts in decision theory and psychology with this collection, and hope that it will stimulate further inquiry. These books are geared to a general audience; the majority are very accessible reads. The collection is broadly divided into three categories. The first is made up of…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Introduction to Decision Analysis
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to …
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to the field of decision analysis in the context of public health. After differentiating simple "relatively automatic" decisions from those that might require more systematic analysis, students are introduced to the core elements of a decision analysis (e.g., objectives, alternatives, probabilities, and outcomes), and the basic steps of a decision analysis. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary,…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Global | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Mathematical Models | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Decision Theory | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Global -
BookPublication 2014Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and …
Decision making in health care involves consideration of a complex set of diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostic uncertainties. Medical therapies have side effects, surgical interventions may lead to complications, and diagnostic tests can produce misleading results. Furthermore, patient values and service costs must be considered. Decisions in clinical and health policy require careful weighing of risks and benefits and are commonly a trade-off of competing objectives: maximizing quality of life vs maximizing life expectancy vs minimizing…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 2009Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six …
This encyclopedia addresses both prescriptive and descriptive decision making through a conceptual structure consisting of six components of classical decision analysis. It includes articles that have been prepared by more than 200 contributors from around the world. The alphabetical organization of the encyclopedia facilitates access to information. A Reader’s Guide, organized by category of the decisionmaking process includes the following 7 components: Identification of the decision maker - in other words, who must choose. In general, there…
Mathematical Models | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine