Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2013Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal 2013
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE, or the Institute) provides guidance to …
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE, or the Institute) provides guidance to the NHS in England on the clinical and cost effectiveness of selected new and established technologies. The Institute undertakes appraisals of health technologies at the request of the Department of Health. Guidance produced by the Institute on health technologies is also applied selectively in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of…
Technology Assessment | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2012Modeling the Risks and Benefits of Depression Treatment for Children and Young Adults
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify …
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify the trade-offs with respect to clinical benefits and the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior of alternative treatment strategies for a U.S. pediatric population with major depressive disorder. The authors evaluate treatment strategies including: selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and a combination of both. The results show that the use of SSRIs is associated with…
Technology Assessment | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Mental Health | Health/Medicine | North America -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2011Test is Positive: But What Are the Odds It's Wrong?
This learning module explores real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. It includes a …
This learning module explores real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. It includes a wide range of activities and resources to accompany videos on probability and statistics in diagnostic testing and as evidence in the court of law. These videos aim to help students better understand what questions to ask in order to produce optimal data. Both video-related and alternative practice problems are provided. These activities are recommended to be used together but can…
Test Performance | Probability/Bayes | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Test Performance | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2005Refining Clinical Diagnosis with Likelihood Ratios
This article serves as a concise tutorial about the interpretation and use of likelihood ratios …
This article serves as a concise tutorial about the interpretation and use of likelihood ratios in clinical decision-making. Likelihood ratios can refine clinical diagnosis on the basis of signs and symptoms; however, they are underused for patients' care. A likelihood ratio is the percentage of ill people with a given test result divided by the percentage of well individuals with the same result. Ideally, abnormal test results should be much more typical in ill individuals…
Test Performance | Value of Information | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Technology Assessment | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 1980Threshold Approach to Clinical Decision Making
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and …
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and how to calculate thresholds for testing, treatment, and no treatment. The authors describe how a physician's estimate of the probability that a patient has a particular disease is a principal factor in the determination of whether to withhold treatment, obtain more data by testing, or treat without subjecting the patient to the risks of further diagnostic tests. Using the concepts of decision analysis,…
Test Performance | Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Test Performance | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ReviewPublication 1978Basic Principles of ROC Analysis
The limitations of diagnostic "accuracy" as a measure of decision performance require introduction of the …
The limitations of diagnostic "accuracy" as a measure of decision performance require introduction of the concepts of the "sensitivity" and "specificity" yet even these do not provide a unique description of diagnostic performance because they depend on the arbitrary selection of a decision threshold. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is shown to be a simple yet complete empirical description of this decision threshold effect, indicating all possible combinations of the relative frequencies of the…
Test Performance | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine