Resources Repository
-
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Probability/Bayes | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Teaching PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Teaching Pack: Heuristics with Joe Pliskin
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics …
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics used in decision making. While these “mental shortcuts” can be useful in some circumstances, they can lead to more errors than deliberate, rational thinking. An awareness of these heuristics is useful to decision makers. This series of videos on heuristics was developed by Professor Joe Pliskin during his residency with the CHDS Media Hub led by Jake Waxman. They reflect…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Business/Industry | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
Online LearningVideo, Teaching Resource 2023Khan Videos: Conditional Probability
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' …
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' Theorem (~5 min). Created by Brit Cruise, this video presents conditional probability visually using trees. Conditional probability and independence (~4 min). This video uses conditional probability to see if events are independent or not. Conditional probability tree diagram (~11 min). This video uses a tree diagram to work out the following conditional probability question: If someone fails a drug test, what is the…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015Economic Evaluations with Agent-Based Modelling: An Introduction
This tutorial presents the basic concepts and important features of agent-based models, and provides a …
This tutorial presents the basic concepts and important features of agent-based models, and provides a case study of a simple cost effectiveness analysis of screening for an infectious disease. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: CEA of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies …
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. This tutorial is based on the publication: Benamouzig R, Barré S, Saurin J-C et al. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology 2021; 14. About the Alan Colowick Innovation Fund The case-based tutorials in this teaching pack were created with support from the CHDS Alan Colowick Innovation Fund, established with…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Introduction to Programming Decision Trees
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate …
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate three initial management strategies for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on a published analysis: Soeteman DI, Stout NK, Ozanne EM et al. Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013; 105 (11): 774-781. The tutorial describes how to build the model structure, parameterize the model probabilities and outcomes based on…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Survival Extrapolation Incorporating General Population Mortality Using Excess Hazard and Cure Models: Tutorial
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when …
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when estimating long-term survival in cost-effectiveness analyses. Using a case study of breast cancer patients, standard parametric survival models were compared with EH methods incorporating general population mortality rates, with and without a cure parameter. Results showed substantial variability in survival extrapolations across standard models, while EH methods, particularly EH cure models, significantly reduced uncertainty. Long-term treatment effects approached null for…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Europe -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Introduction to Decision Analysis
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to …
In this teaching pack on Introduction to Decision Analysis, students are provided a basic introduction to the field of decision analysis in the context of public health. After differentiating simple "relatively automatic" decisions from those that might require more systematic analysis, students are introduced to the core elements of a decision analysis (e.g., objectives, alternatives, probabilities, and outcomes), and the basic steps of a decision analysis. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary,…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Probability Revision and Bayes
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications …
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Learning Objectives Demonstrate a conceptual understanding of Bayes’ theorem and probability revision. Differentiate between test characteristics (e.g., probability of positive test given…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy