Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Preferences/Values | Decision Theory | Energy/Engineering | Economics/Finance | Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Misinformation and Public Opinion of Science and Health
This article summarizes the literature on misinformation, beginning with an overview of the most common …
This article summarizes the literature on misinformation, beginning with an overview of the most common definitions of misinformation (and related terms) in the communication literature and then a review of academic studies in the areas of science and health. The author acknowledges four overarching questions that have emerged prominently in recent years: (1) What does “misinformation” (and the terms that are oftentimes treated synonymously) mean? (2) How big of a problem is it in areas…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Energy/Engineering | Social Determinants | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Science/Technology | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Misinformation Has Created a New World Disorder
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from …
This article, in brief, discusses (1) that many types of information disorder exist online, from fabricated videos to impersonated accounts to memes designed to manipulate genuine content, (2) automation and microtargeting tactics have made it easier for agents of disinformation to weaponize regular users of the social web to spread harmful messages, and (3) much research is needed to understand the effects of disinformation and build safeguards against it. This description was adapted from the…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Energy/Engineering | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Economic Value of Clinical Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in clinical applications. Nevertheless, its flexibility and difficulties around …
Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in clinical applications. Nevertheless, its flexibility and difficulties around collecting data on its clinical impacts make value assessment challenging. This article uses a value framework as the basis for assessing how AI may create value depending on how it is used. Authors also provide advice to health economists seeking to model AI’s clinical impacts. There are multiple ways that AI challenges traditional health technology assessment methodology. Authors highlight several…
Value of Information | Economics/Finance | Technology Assessment | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Economics/Finance | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face …
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face of uncertainty. This study aimed to quantify consequences of approving therapies or pursuing further research. The authors used a cohort state-transition model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs associated with multiple drug regimens and usual care. For each they assessed immediate approval, use only in research, emergency use authorization or reject. They conducted cost-effectiveness…
Value of Information | Economics/Finance | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2018Trading Bankruptcy for Health: A Discrete-Choice Experiment
This article in Value in Health evaluates the importance of improved health as compared to …
This article in Value in Health evaluates the importance of improved health as compared to improved financial risk protection in the general United States population. Using a discrete-choice experiment, it finds that 31.3% of the population values cure at all costs, and 8.5% of the population use financial solvency to dominate medical decision making. This study shares insight to the US population values and trade-offs between health outcomes and financial health, and highlights the difficult…
Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Revealed Willingness-to-Pay vs. Standard Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) of 16 HIV programs in South Africa. The …
This study estimates the cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) of 16 HIV programs in South Africa. The use of CETs based on a country’s income per capita has been criticized for not being grounded in theory or evidence, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). An alternative has been produced for South Africa, based on estimates of life years saved and the country’s committed HIV budget. The authors used a previously -published optimization method to estimate CETs,…
Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Decision Psychology | Economics/Finance | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Global Governance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global