Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2018Should We Treat Acute Hepatitis C? A Decision and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared …
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared to deferring treatment until the chronic phase, utilizing a microsimulation model. By projecting long-term outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs, the analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating therapy during the acute phase. Results indicate that treating acute HCV increases QALYs by 0.02 and costs by $483 per patient not at risk of transmitting HCV, yielding an incremental…
Decision Analysis | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2016Decision Support for Infectious Disease Control
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to …
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious disease prevention, detection, and response and aligns these tools with real-world policy questions that the tools can help address. This overview is designed to help modelers and other technical experts understand the questions that policymakers will raise and the decisions they must make. The report also presents policymakers with the capabilities and limitations of the different tools that may…
Global Governance | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Global -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Global Governance | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
GuidelinesPublication 2012Modeling Good Research Practices - Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-1
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the …
This paper provides an overview of the work of the joint Task Force between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), provides the overarching recommendations, and discusses future work that is needed. The audience for these papers includes anyone who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and those concerned with the use of models to support decision making. This article is part 1 of…
Decision Analysis | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2024Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, Economic Evaluation
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis …
This study evaluates the impact of Rwanda's national program launched in 2018 to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) and identifies strategies to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) elimination goals by 2030. Employing a microsimulation model spanning 2015 to 2050, the analysis assesses HCV epidemic trends, prevalence, mortality, and total care costs under various scenarios. Results show that between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened and 60,000 treated, projecting Rwanda's potential achievement of…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Gains and Financial Protection from HPV Vaccination
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical …
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. This article uses a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. The findings show that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Re-Evaluating the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Prevention for Modern ART Cohorts
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in …
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as individuals initiate ART earlier in the course of disease, TB incidence is lower, and it is unclear how ART cost-effectiveness has changed. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TPT in contemporary ART cohorts. The authors developed a microsimulation model of TB and HIV and parameterised it using data from a large HIV…
Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa