Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLoS Collection: Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted …
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur each day, incurring a very substantial burden of morbidity, mortality and additional infections. The pathogens responsible include bacteria, parasites and viruses, and intensive research is needed to address the substantial barriers to diagnosis and treatment of STIs, and the behavioral challenges of prevention. This PLOS collection, published in collaboration with WHO, focuses on global policy and systems…
Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Priority Setting/Ethics | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Getting it Right When Budgets are Tight: Prioritizing Responses to HIV Epidemics
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and …
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain.The authors examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package…
Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Maternal-Related Deaths and Impoverishment among Adolescent Girls in India and Niger
This article, published in BMJ Open, examined the distribution of maternal deaths and impoverishment among …
This article, published in BMJ Open, examined the distribution of maternal deaths and impoverishment among adolescent girls across socioeconomic groups in Niger and India, which have the largest fertility rate, and number of maternal deaths, respectively. Results showed that in Niger and India, the poorer adolescents had a larger number of maternal deaths compared to the richer. Impoverishment occurred mostly among the richer adolescents in Niger and among the poorer adolescents in India. Increasing educational…
Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Social Determinants | Economics/Finance | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific