Resources Repository
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ReportPublication 2013Decision and Simulation Modeling Alongside Systematic Reviews
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks …
This chapter is part of a report entitled, Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews, that seeks to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic model alongside a systemic review would be of added value for decision making purposes. The chapter discusses the role of decision analysis and decision-analytic models in health care, specifically within the context of the current emphasis on evidence-based medicine and the proliferation of systematic reviews. It describes the types of model available…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Evidence Synthesis | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Dynamic Transmission | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
Tools/ModelsPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Publicly Available Software Tools for Decision-Makers During an Emergent Epidemic
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health …
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health practitioners, decision makers and researchers to plan, prepare, identify and respond to outbreaks in near real-timeframes. The aim of this research is to evaluate the range of public domain and freely available software epidemic modelling tools. Twenty freely utilizable software tools underwent assessment of software usability, utility and key functionalities. Stochastic and agent based tools were found to be highly…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Global -
ReviewPublication 2016Choosing an Epidemiological Model Structure for Economic Evaluation
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic …
This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to a greater need for prevention of chronic diseases. In order for decision makers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Controlling Measles Using Supplemental Immunization: A Mathematical Model
The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support …
The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). Authors estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden using an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. They explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve…
Dynamic Transmission | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Dynamic Transmission | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global