Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Evidence Synthesis | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Health Outcomes | Global Governance | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Evidence Synthesis | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Health Outcomes | Health Systems | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Costing Methods | Global Governance | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Global Governance | Health Systems | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2015Achieving a 'Grand Convergence' in Global Health
The Commission on Investing in Health published its report, GlobalHealth2035, in 2013, estimating an investment …
The Commission on Investing in Health published its report, GlobalHealth2035, in 2013, estimating an investment case for a grand convergence in health outcomes globally. In support of the drafting of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this paper presents estimates of what the grand convergence investment case might achieve—and what investment would be required—by 2030. The authors start with a country-based (bottom-up) analysis of the costs and impact of…!--?xml:namespace prefix = "o" ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /-->
Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Global Governance | Health Systems | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2015A Conceptual Model for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process …
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. This paper presents a conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based…
Evidence Synthesis | Test Performance | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Preferences/Values | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America