Resources Repository
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BookPublication 2013Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, 3rd Edition
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas …
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version has been purposefully written to be more relevant to students in business and engineering compared to previous versions. This new version also incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® software by Palisade Corporation. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions…
Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Policy/Regulation | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Business/Industry | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Policy/Regulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Probability/Bayes | Value of Information | Policy/Regulation | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Policy/Regulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Policy/Regulation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face …
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face of uncertainty. This study aimed to quantify consequences of approving therapies or pursuing further research. The authors used a cohort state-transition model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs associated with multiple drug regimens and usual care. For each they assessed immediate approval, use only in research, emergency use authorization or reject. They conducted cost-effectiveness…
Value of Information | Policy/Regulation | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Theory | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Injuries/Accidents | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Opportunity Cost Threshold for CEA in the U.S.
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, …
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, the authors simulated the short-term mortality and morbidity resulting from increased premium related cancelation of insurance coverage. The authors used this model to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds, in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained based on health opportunity costs. They reported the number of persons who dropped insurance coverage, resulting number of additional deaths and QALYs lost from mortality and…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | North America