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Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2010Empirically Evaluating Decision-Analytic Models
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors …
To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. The authors developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, they applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2008Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Gastric Cancer in Two High-Risk Countries
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in …
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in China and Colombia to provide qualitative insight into the cost-effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention strategies. Despite studies that have established the relationship between Helicobacter pylori and gastric cancer and H. pylori treatment reducing cancer incidence among individuals without preexisting precancerous lesions, screening for H. pylori is still being debated. The authors synthesized…!--?xml:namespace prefix = "o" ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /-->
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Microsimulation | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases