Resources Repository
-
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Test Performance | Value of Information | Government/Law | Policy/Regulation | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
State-Transition | Government/Law | Business/Industry | Policy/Regulation | Mathematical Models | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | State-Transition | Government/Law | Policy/Regulation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Theory | Government/Law | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Making Fair Choices on the Path to UHC: Applying Principles to Difficult Cases
Progress toward universal health coverage (UHC) requires making difficult trade-offs. The World Health Organization (WHO) …
Progress toward universal health coverage (UHC) requires making difficult trade-offs. The World Health Organization (WHO) Consultative Group on Equity and UHC has endorsed the principles for making such decisions. These principles include maximizing population health, priority for the worse off, and shielding people from health-related financial risks. But how should one apply these principles in particular cases, and how should one adjudicate between them when their demands conflict? This article by some members of the…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Government/Law | Culture/Society | Policy/Regulation | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ReportPublication 2018Estimating the Distributional Impact of Increasing Taxes on Tobacco Products in Armenia
Smoking is considered the leading risk factor for mortality among the Armenian population. The authors …
Smoking is considered the leading risk factor for mortality among the Armenian population. The authors conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) on increases in the excise tax on cigarettes in Armenia. Based on the World Health Organization recommendations, they analyzed the impact of a 75% increase of excise tax on the retail price of cigarettes. The ECEA found large health and financial benefits to the excise tax. It averted about 88,000 premature deaths, US$63 million of OOP…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Government/Law | Business/Industry | Policy/Regulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Europe -
ReportPublication 2016Modeling to Inform Strategies to Improve Population Health
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential …
This workshop report summarizes a workshop convened by the Institute of Medicine to explore the potential uses of simulation and other types of modeling for improving health. Participants worked to identify how modeling could inform population health decision making (selecting and refining potential strategies, ranging from interventions to investments) based on lessons learned from models that have been, or have not been, used successfully, opportunities and barriers to incorporating models into decision making, and data needs and…
State-Transition | Government/Law | Business/Industry | Policy/Regulation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016“Nudges” in Law and Policy
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of …
This article describes research on Americans’ preferences for types of “nudges” in the context of law and public policy—those that target “system 1” thinking, meaning the intuitive, emotion-based mechanisms, such as graphic warnings and default rules, versus those that target “system 2” thinking, the rational, deliberative form of cognition, such as statistical information or education-based messages.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Government/Law | Culture/Society | Policy/Regulation | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Health/Medicine -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2015White Paper: Retrospective Benefit-Cost Analysis
In this article the authors consider how benefit-cost analysis can be used retrospectively to promote …
In this article the authors consider how benefit-cost analysis can be used retrospectively to promote understanding of the impacts after a policy is implemented. Serving as a brief primer, the authors propose that analysis can be useful for identifying needed reforms as well as in improving the conduct of future prospective analyses. The major challenges relate to estimating what would have occurred in the absence of the policy and separating the effects of the policy…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Government/Law | Culture/Society | Policy/Regulation | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Economics/Finance | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Policy Translation