- decision theory
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Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2018Examining Evaluation Methods for Health Equity Policies
This article reviews diverse methods for evaluating public policies that address social determinants of health …
This article reviews diverse methods for evaluating public policies that address social determinants of health equity. Understanding approaches to evaluating public policies is essential in strengthening the evidence base that informs policy change. Examining 50 studies in the article, the authors find that most studies evaluating policies for health equity outcomes use observational research designs and regression techniques to analyze impact. Furthermore, the studies reviewed primarily relied on secondary data, and nearly three out of…
Evidence Synthesis | Global Governance | Health Outcomes | Social Determinants | Government/Law | Global -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Probability Revision and Bayes
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications …
In this teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Learning Objectives Demonstrate a conceptual understanding of Bayes’ theorem and probability revision. Differentiate between test characteristics (e.g., probability of positive test given…
Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2017Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age …
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. They used pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults to simulate growth trajectories across the life course adjusted for secular trends. Using 1,000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years, representative of the…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Benefit and Harm of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment: Derivation and Validation of Risk Models Using Data from the Sprint and Accord Trials
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some …
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. The authors sought to create risk calculators to estimate individual patients’ chances of benefit and harm from intensive treatment. They developed statistical models of cardiovascular events and serious adverse events from individual participant data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) of intensive blood pressure treatment (N = 9,069 with complete covariate data) and validated them…
Evidence Synthesis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Probability/Bayes | Health Outcomes -
ArticlePublication 2017When Cost-Effective Interventions Are Unaffordable
Many health interventions deemed cost-effective are not affordable. Despite the importance of affordability to policymakers, …
Many health interventions deemed cost-effective are not affordable. Despite the importance of affordability to policymakers, little of the cost-effectiveness literature in global health addresses this issue. Budget impact analysis (BIA) describes an intervention's short-term costs and savings from the payer's perspective. This paper assesses the current use of budget impact analysis (BIA) and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in health economic assessments conducted for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The authors recommend steps researchers and policymakers can…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ReportPublication 2016Economics of Tobacco and Tobacco Control
This report examines the current research and evidence base surrounding the economics of tobacco control—including tobacco …
This report examines the current research and evidence base surrounding the economics of tobacco control—including tobacco use, tobacco growing, manufacturing and trade, tobacco product taxes and prices, and tobacco control policies and other interventions to reduce tobacco use and its consequences. The report was co-produced by the National Cancer Institute and the World Health Organization and is intended to inform tobacco prevention and control programs and policies in countries around the world. There are 17 chapters which can be…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Costing Methods | Policy/Regulation | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2014Evaluation of FDA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Graphic Warning Labels
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is required to do a regulatory impact analysis assessing …
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is required to do a regulatory impact analysis assessing the costs and benefits of its tobacco products and other regulations. This paper provides a critical review of the approach the FDA used in its proposed and final graphic warning label rule, and includes recommendations on how to improve the analysis in ways that account for the differences between tobacco use and consumption of most consumer products. To date, FDA…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Costing Methods | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017OOP Expenditures for Cardiovascular Disease
This article, published in BMJ Global Health, aims to estimate the magnitude and intensity of …
This article, published in BMJ Global Health, aims to estimate the magnitude and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and factors associated with CHE for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in hospitals in Addis Ababa. Seeking prevention and treatment services for cardiovascular disease in Addis Ababa was found to pose substantial financial burden on households, affecting the poorest and those who reside outside Addis Ababa more. Economic and geographic inequalities should therefore be…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ReportPublication 2018Estimating the Distributional Impact of Increasing Taxes on Tobacco Products in Armenia
Smoking is considered the leading risk factor for mortality among the Armenian population. The authors …
Smoking is considered the leading risk factor for mortality among the Armenian population. The authors conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) on increases in the excise tax on cigarettes in Armenia. Based on the World Health Organization recommendations, they analyzed the impact of a 75% increase of excise tax on the retail price of cigarettes. The ECEA found large health and financial benefits to the excise tax. It averted about 88,000 premature deaths, US$63 million of OOP…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Europe