Resources Repository
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ReportPublication 2015Modeling to Improve Policy Decisions in the Americas: Noncommunicable Diseases
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only …
In the Region of the Americas, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a clear threat not only to human health, but also to a country’s economic development and growth. The evidence on both of these counts is compelling. In 2012, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancers, chronic respiratory conditions including asthma, and other NCDs were the cause of 4.5 million deaths in the Americas. Of that total number, 1.5 million of them were premature, occurring among people aged 30-69…
Microsimulation | Mental Health | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ReviewPublication 2014Markov Modeling & Discrete Event Simulation in Health Care: Systematic Comparison
This review assesses whether the use of Markov modeling (MM) or discrete event simulation (DES) …
This review assesses whether the use of Markov modeling (MM) or discrete event simulation (DES) for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) may alter healthcare resource allocation decisions. A systematic literature search and review of empirical and non-empirical studies comparing MM and DES techniques used in the CEA of healthcare technologies was conducted. The primary advantages described for DES over MM were the ability to model queuing for limited resources, capture individual patient histories, accommodate complexity and uncertainty,…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2012Modeling the Risks and Benefits of Depression Treatment for Children and Young Adults
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify …
This article, published in Value in Health, presents a discrete event simulation model to quantify the trade-offs with respect to clinical benefits and the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior of alternative treatment strategies for a U.S. pediatric population with major depressive disorder. The authors evaluate treatment strategies including: selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and a combination of both. The results show that the use of SSRIs is associated with…
Microsimulation | Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16/18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Eastern Africa
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe …
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, they assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, they assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Women Aged 30+ Years in the U.S.
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV …
The objective of the study was to assess the health and economic outcomes of HPV vaccination in older U.S. women. The authors conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with an empirically calibrated model using data from published literature; interventions included HPV vaccination added to screening strategies that differ by test (cytology or HPV DNA testing), frequency, and start age versus screening alone.They found that in the context of annual or biennial screening, HPV vaccination of women aged…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2008Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16 and 18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in India
As cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death among women in low-income countries, …
As cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death among women in low-income countries, with approximately 25% of cases worldwide occurring in India, these authors estimated the potential health and economic impact of different cervical cancer prevention strategies in India. After empirically calibrating a cervical cancer model to country-specific epidemiologic data, they projected cancer incidence, life expectancy, and lifetime costs (I$2005), and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/YLS) for the following strategies: pre-adolescent vaccination of…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Including Boys in an HPV Vaccination Program: A CEA in a Low-Resource Setting
This paper looks at the cost-effectiveness of including boys vs girls alone in a pre-adolescent vaccination …
This paper looks at the cost-effectiveness of including boys vs girls alone in a pre-adolescent vaccination program against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 in Brazil. Using demographic, epidemiological, and cancer data from Brazil, the authors developed a dynamic transmission model of HPV infection between males and females. Model-projected reductions in HPV incidence under different vaccination scenarios were applied to a stochastic model of cervical carcinogenesis to project lifetime costs and benefits. They found that at 90%…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Clinical Care | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2006Can Discrete Event Simulation be of Use in Modeling Major Depression?
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov …
This article, published in Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, reviews the published literature on Markov models in depression and identified potential limitations in using this particular modelling approach in this disease area. Additionally, the authors develop a “Discrete Event Simulation” (DES) model to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. The findings of this study indicate that the most important limitation of using Markov models in depression is…
Microsimulation | Mental Health | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine