- preferences/values
- models and tools
- mathematical models
- state-transition
- dynamic transmission
- microsimulation
- calibration/validation
- dynamic simulation
- approaches and applications
- decision analysis
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- operations research
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Resources Repository
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ExerciseNone, Teaching Resource 2024Lab: Giant Cell Arteritis Decision Tree Model
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell …
This tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree model focused on Giant Cell Arteritis. It describes how to build the model structure, assign probabilities and outcomes based on imperfect test characteristics and epidemiologic estimates, evaluate alternative treatment strategies, and conduct one-way sensitivity analyses to assess which model parameters may impact the optimal treatment choice. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is an open source modeling framework and probabilistic programming language for decision analysis…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: CEA of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies …
This self-directed tutorial is about a decision analytic model of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. This tutorial is based on the publication: Benamouzig R, Barré S, Saurin J-C et al. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Alternative Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies in High-Risk Individuals. Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology 2021; 14. About the Alan Colowick Innovation Fund The case-based tutorials in this teaching pack were created with support from the CHDS Alan Colowick Innovation Fund, established with…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Introduction to Programming Decision Trees
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate …
This self-directed tutorial walks through the development of a decision tree using Amua to evaluate three initial management strategies for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) based on a published analysis: Soeteman DI, Stout NK, Ozanne EM et al. Modeling the Effectiveness of Initial Management Strategies for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013; 105 (11): 774-781. The tutorial describes how to build the model structure, parameterize the model probabilities and outcomes based on…
Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Costing Methods | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 …
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 billion in March 2021 for testing in schools. The study aimed to analyze the costs and benefits of different COVID-19 testing strategies, particularly focusing on full-time, in-person elementary and middle school education. Utilizing an updated agent-based network model, the study simulated transmission scenarios in schools, considering various testing strategies ranging from diagnostic testing (test-to-stay) to reduce symptom-based isolations, routine screening…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Out-of-Pocket Expenditures & Financial Risks Associated with Treatment of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Ethiopia
This study investigates out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures and associated catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) for vaccine-preventable diseases …
This study investigates out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures and associated catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) in Ethiopia. Through a cross-sectional costing analysis, data on OOP direct medical and nonmedical expenditures were collected from 995 households in 54 health facilities nationwide. The study focuses on VPDs in children under 5 years for pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, and pertussis, and in children under 15 years for meningitis. Mean OOP expenditures per disease episode ranged from $5·6 to…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Child/Nutrition | Costing Methods | Chronic Disease/Risk | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Masked Hypertension Screening and Treatment
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in …
The study assessed the health and economic outcomes of screening and treating masked hypertension in U.S. adults using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, a microsimulation model. The model simulated 100,000 adults suspected of having masked hypertension (office blood pressure [BP] of 120–129/<80 mm Hg, not on antihypertensive medications, and without a history of CVD). Interventions included: usual care alone, usual care with ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), and usual care with home BP monitoring (HBPM).…
Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Clinical Care | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Child Health Inequity through Case Management of Under-Five Malaria in Nigeria: An ECEA
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of …
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of under-five malaria case management in Nigeria, utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and a decision tree model. Findings reveal that fully subsidizing medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8,600 cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and US$187 million in out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Per US$1 million invested, this translates to a significant reduction in under-five…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Child/Nutrition | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Sub-Saharan Africa