Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Latent TB Screening before Immigration to Low-Incidence Countries
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening …
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening for active infections, screening for latent TB infection before immigration is rare. The authors used discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness preimmigration latent TB infection screening for migrants to low-incidence countries. They calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for migrants from countries with different TB incidences. Their analysis when combined with research on sustainability, acceptability, and program implementation can…
Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Costs of Facility-Based HIV Testing in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to …
Providing HIV testing at health facilities remains the most common approach to ensuring access to HIV treatment and prevention services for the millions of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors sought to explore the costs of providing these services across three southern African countries with high HIV burden.Primary costing studies were undertaken in 54 health facilities providing HIV testing services (HTS) in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data for…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Dynamic Simulation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine